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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2024-05-05T17:18Z

Model Inputs:
2024-05-05T02:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=6.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=820.0, HalfAngle=12.0, Time21.5=2024-05-05T05:29Z
2024-05-05T03:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=572.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2024-05-05T08:45Z
2024-05-05T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=495.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2024-05-05T12:07Z
2024-05-05T08:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=614.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2024-05-05T12:29Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-07T23:00Z (+- 7 hours)
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=3
(kp)135=4
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2024-05-07T20:00Z (Glancing Blow)

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240505_052900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note :
CME 2024-05-05T02:09Z has been reanalyzed to be far out of the ecliptic and is no longer expected to contribute to Earth and STEREO A impacts.

Submitted on 2024-05-05T17:29Z by Anna Chulaki

A Notification with ID 20240505-AL-010 was sent on 2024-05-05T18:02Z


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