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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2023-12-22T20:20Z
Model Inputs: 2023-12-21T06:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=61.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=634.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2023-12-21T11:21Z 2023-12-22T00:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=72.0, Lat.=-11.0, Speed=621.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2023-12-22T06:19Z 2023-12-21T22:03:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=70.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=455.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-12-22T07:02Z 2023-12-22T01:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=60.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=591.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2023-12-22T07:19Z 2023-12-22T05:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=71.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=564.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2023-12-22T10:48Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: No or little impact to Earth. Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-APEX with estimated shock arrival time 2023-12-22T18:21Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231221_112200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif Note : We observe in the OSIRIS-APEX timeline that the automatically detected arrival time of 2023-12-22T18:21Z is the first of two enhancements, with the first being distinctly attributable to the 2023-12-21T06:09:00-CME-001 event. The second enhancement starting around 2023-12-23T16:00Z is the combined effect of the CMEs with IDs 2023-12-22T00:24:00-CME-001, 2023-12-21T22:03:00-CME-001, 2023-12-22T01:25:00-CME-001, and 2023-12-22T05:12:00-CME-001. This 5-CME simulation was conducted to check for potential clearing effects from the 2023-12-21T06:09:00-CME-001 event which might expedite the arrival of the subsequent four CMEs. It was determined that there was not a significant difference in arrival time when including the 2023-12-21T06:09:00-CME-001 event (only a 3-hour difference), so a notification was sent via the 4-CME simulation entry. Submitted on 2023-12-22T22:27Z by Hannah Hermann No Notification has been sent for this activity yet. |
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