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Prediction for CME (2026-06-30T15:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-30T15:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47192/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely an eruption from Active Region 14479 (N16W15) starting around 2026-06-30T13:30Z which exhibits northern deflection as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. Dimming is observed northeast of the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 imagery. Closing as non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-05T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47195/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-30T15:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=31.0, Speed=387.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2026-06-30T22:35Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-05T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=1
(kp)180=2

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-02T14:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260630_223500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 118.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-30T19:30Z

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