CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-13T19:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-13T19:53ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42694/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Noting that this event is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event overlaps with preceding CME: 2025-11-13T18:38Z. The source may be related to an eruption centered near S20E55 starting around 2025-11-13T19:40Z seen best in GOES SUVI 304 imagery. However, it is also possible this event is associated with the southeast filament eruption which was associated with CME: 2025-11-13T18:38Z. | Arrival Notes: Characterised by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to initially 650 km/s and eventually (around 2025-11-16T05Z to 700 km/s), likely indicating a shock/sheath. Magnetic field also had two consecutive jumps paralleling the solar wind speed increases: initially from 4n to over 10 nT and then to 15.7 nT by 2025-11-16T05:19Z. Ion temperature has the same increases as the solar wind speed and magnetic field. Bz was mostly positive, but ater 2025-11-16T08Z there were prolonged periods of negative Bz. Flux rope likely starts after 2025-11-16T09:30Z (when there is a drop in temperature, density and solar wind speed and a smoother rotation).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-16T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-16T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -0.27 hour(s)
Difference: -10.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-11-16T01:48Z
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