CME Scoreboard: Home Page
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The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team within the COSPAR International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT).
Developed by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), the CME Scoreboard serves as a research-based pre-event forecasting validation platform.
Active CMEs:
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CME: 2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001
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CME Note: CME observed as a faint partial halo, nearly a full halo, directed towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, and a brighter front to the NE in STEREO A COR. Also faintly observed in currently available frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z observed in SDO AIA 131, alongside brightening in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and a small dimming SW of the region best seen in SDO AIA 193.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-07-01T17:42Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-06-28T23:29Z |
66.22
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Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-07-02T05:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
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----
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70.0
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2025-06-29T17:45Z |
59.25
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Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
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Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-07-02T04:34Z
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----
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70.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-07-02T05:00Z
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----
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70.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
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Median of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-07-02T15:02Z
(-11.49h, +11.12h)
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----
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----
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2025-06-29T19:15Z |
67.78
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
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Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-06-27T11:00:00-CME-001
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CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-06-27T11:00Z, as well as in SOHO LASCO C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a slow, minor filament liftoff seen beginning at approx. 2025-06-27T04:00Z, centered at approximately S25W15 as seen in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI 304, along with field line movement and post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 171, and 193.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-07-01T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-06-27T17:44Z |
84.27
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-07-01T06:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-07-01T06:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Median of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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Past CMEs:
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CME: 2025-06-24T16:09:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-27T08:25Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Faint CME first seen in the SE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-06-24T16:09Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a minor eruption from the vicinity of Active Region 14117 (S15W05) exhibiting a Southeastern deflection as seen in SDO AIA 94, 171 and 193. This deflection is likely due to a large negative polarity coronal hole situated just Northwest of this eruption, causing a Southeastern deflection away from central meridian.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-27T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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-6.42
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----
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2025-06-24T18:10Z |
62.25
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-27T02:00Z
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-6.42
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-27T02:00Z
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-6.42
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-06-17T01:36:00-CME-001
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| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: A partial northeastern halo overlapping with the earlier 2025-06-17T00:36Z CME which is somewhat narrower. Its source is likely the more western part of the complex eruption associated with the C5.5 flare from N21E22 peaking at 2025-06-17T00:38Z from east of AR 4115. No clear CME arrival signature seen in the solar wind.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-20T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-06-17T13:08Z |
76.87
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-20T18:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-20T18:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-06-17T00:36:00-CME-001
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| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Narrow fast CME to the northeast(it looks a bit like a protruding nose of the more complex, likely 2-CME, conglomerate) the source of which is a possible 2-filament eruption east of Active Region 14115: a complex, two-pronged filament eruption with bright post-eruptive arcades centered ~(N21E20) in SDO AIA 304 which is likely associated with the C5.5 flare centered around N21E22 and peaking at 2025-06-17T00:38Z. There is also a more eastern filament that is possibly erupting at the same time. No clear CME arrival signature seen in the solar wind.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-20T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
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2025-06-17T13:08Z |
76.87
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-20T02:00Z
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----
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----
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2025-06-18T04:30Z |
45.50
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
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Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-20T10:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-20T10:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.33
CME Note: An asymmetric, fast, and relatively diffuse CME from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) seen to the north-northeast in SOHO C2 associated with an M8.4 flare peaking at 2025-06-15T18:07Z; the eruption is seen as significant dimming somewhat to the northwest of the active region with post-eruptive arcades and EUV wave also seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is likely deflected northwards out of the ecliptic, but analysis from M2M suggests that the southern flank may graze Earth early on 2025-06-18. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-18T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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-25.00
|
----
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2025-06-16T19:06Z |
59.90
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-17T21:07Z
(-4.33h, +3.74h)
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-33.88
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90.0
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2025-06-16T22:24Z |
56.60
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-18T12:00Z
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-19.00
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50.0
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2025-06-16T22:30Z |
56.50
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
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Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-18T12:00Z
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-19.00
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40.0
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2025-06-17T09:38Z |
45.37
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Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
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Other (SIDC)
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Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-18T06:46Z
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-24.23
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60.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-18T09:00Z
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-22.00
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50.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.33
CME Note: Bright asymmetrical CME seen to the west in all three coronagraphs. Its source is the M2.2 flare from AR 4105 (S15W70) peaking 2025-06-15T07:56Z and the associated eruption with faint ejecta seen going westward in GOES SUVI 304, post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195, and a relatively small area of dimming centered around (S11W65) seen in SDO AIA 193 and even clearer in EUVI A 195. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-18T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-31.00
|
----
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2025-06-15T14:33Z |
88.45
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-20T13:36Z
(-8.87h, +12.18h)
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30.60
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----
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2025-06-15T17:45Z |
85.25
|
----
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CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-18T22:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
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-9.00
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45.0
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2025-06-16T13:07Z |
65.88
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-19T03:52Z
|
-3.13
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45.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
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Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-18T22:00Z
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-9.00
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45.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-06-08T02:48:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-12T19:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely related to a large dimming region centered near N10E40 which begins to appear around 2025-06-08T01:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Possible arrival signature starting around 2025-06-12T19:30Z: a likely signature of a flux rope, characterized by the lowering of ion density and temperature, and by the smooth velocity decrease, as well as by smooth rotation of magnetic field components. It is following the coronal hole high speed stream which started around 2025-06-11T11:25Z
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-12T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.50
|
----
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2025-06-08T13:59Z |
101.52
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Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-12T00:01Z
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-19.48
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50.0
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2025-06-09T00:24Z |
91.10
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Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-14T12:28Z
(-18.44h, +17.47h)
|
40.97
|
----
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2025-06-09T01:34Z |
89.93
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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| 2025-06-13T01:29Z
|
5.98
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50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-12T16:00Z
|
-3.50
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-06-06T11:12:00-CME-001
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| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint and wide CME to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption centered near N12E37 starting around 2025-06-06T10:50Z, as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-08T21:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
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2025-06-06T18:48Z |
50.20
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-10T00:01Z
|
----
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30.0
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2025-06-09T00:18Z |
23.72
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-09T10:30Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-09T10:30Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
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CME: 2025-06-03T07:48:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-07T00:15Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: A slow partial halo CME to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the east in STEREO A COR2, seen more brightly in COR2. Its start time could possibly be even earlier as some wispy outflows start in SOHO LASCO C2 approximately an hour before, but the clear front is seen closer to 2025-06-03T07:48Z. Its source is likely the eruption of a filament north and northeast of the disk center, seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195/304/284 starting at ~2025-06-03T01:21Z. The development of the associated dimming is very peculiar, with initial dimming (and the faint post-eruptive arcades) centered around ~(N20E01), but later the dimming is seen migrating/expanding eastwardly through the rest of the morning, and settling on a large circular area centered ~N35E15 by 2025-06-03T12:20Z. | Arrival Signature: Characterized by an initial spike in Bt from 5nT to 6.6nT, gradually rising up to 11.8nT by 2025-06-07T12:19Z, Bz largely northward and neutral with some brief southward periods down to -10nT. Three distinct changes of the magnetic field components are observed around 2025-06-07T6:30Z, 2025-06-07T8:37Z, and 2025-06-07T11:21Z as well. Solar wind speed increased from about 400 km/s to about 420 km/s briefly, returned to about 380 km/s, then slowy rose back to around 430 km/s starting at 2025-06-07T03:51Z. A gradual rise and decrease of density begins with the intial Bt spike around 2025-06-07T00:15Z to 2025-06-07T08:42Z, with a another short jump in density from 2025-06-07T10:11Z to 2025-06-07T11:32Z. A gradual rise and decrease in temperature begins around 2025-06-07T03:00Z ending around 2025-06-07T12:20Z. This is likely the arrival of CME 2025-06-03T07:48Z, possibly mixed with a weak high speed stream signature, this signature is under further analysis due to its complexity.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-07T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.75
|
----
|
2025-06-03T17:44Z |
78.52
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-06T18:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
-6.25
|
60.0
|
2025-06-04T05:40Z |
66.58
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-07T01:00Z
|
0.75
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-07T01:00Z
|
0.75
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-31T14:23:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-02T20:09Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME first seen in the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-31T14:23Z. This CME is seen VERY faintly in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR as a full halo signature in later frames. There is no abundantly clear source for this event. There is a small region of brightening and field line movement from AR 14100 (N15E08) beginning at approx. 2025-05-31T13:34Z as seen in SDO AIA 94 and 211 that may be associated with this CME. | Arrival Signature: Characterized by a brief jump in Btotal from an already elevated 10nT background (due to waning influence from previous IPS 2025-06-01T05:22Z) to 12.4nT, rising to around 14.5nT by 2025-06-02T20:29Z. Also observed a distinct rise in solar wind speed from around 580 km/s to around 660 km/s at this time, with a small elevation in temperature and density timelines at the start of this signature. This may be the arrival of CME 2025-05-31T14:23Z expected at 2025-06-02T22:43Z (+-7 hours), analysis is ongoing for this signature and if that CME may have been observed as part of earlier IPS 2025-06-01T05:22Z instead.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-02T22:43Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.57
|
----
|
2025-06-01T01:26Z |
42.72
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T22:43Z
|
2.57
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T22:43Z
|
2.57
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-31T07:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Very faint CME first seen to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-31T07:12Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is likely continued dimming and field line movement seen following a large eruption from AR 14100. This dimming can be seen centered at approx. S20E05 in SDO AIA 211.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-03T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-05-31T22:48Z |
57.20
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-03T08:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-03T08:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -121
CME Note: Full-halo CME first seen in GOES-19 CCOR-1. Also seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after the beginning of a downlink period with data streaming in starting at about 2025-05-31T01:00Z. No STEREO A COR2 imagery was available in real time for this CME due to a data gap which began at 2025-05-30T19:09Z. The source is an M8.1 flare from AR 14100 (N12E12). A significant area of opening field lines and dimming can be seen from near AR 14100 (N12E12) in SDO AIA 193/171/131/304 and GOES SUVI 284/304 beginning at 2025-05-30T23:47Z, immediately after the flare. Dimming and field line movement extends along a nearby filament which spans across most of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from approximately N30E05 to S15W35, snaking through the entire NW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in a shape resembling the number '3'. It appears that most of the filamentary material ejected is from the upper lobe of the '3', and departs from approximately N10W15. This filament is also located directly next to, and runs parallel to, the SWPC-numbered Coronal Hole 52. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density preceding this arrival, followed by a drop in density. After the initial shock/sheath there is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components (seen after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating the possible start of a flux rope. There are also two more potential flux ropes seen in this 2-day solar wind signature down the road, likely indicating that there were three CMEs combined in a single front. This fast halo CME was predicted to potentially combine with (catch up) two slower, preceding, Earth-directed CMEs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-01T06:23Z
(-3.0h, +8.0h)
|
1.02
|
----
|
2025-05-31T12:27Z |
16.92
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T04:45Z
(-4.63h, +4.44h)
|
-0.62
|
99.0
|
2025-05-31T12:33Z |
16.82
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T12:21Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.98
|
----
|
2025-05-31T12:51Z |
16.52
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T09:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
3.63
|
99.0
|
2025-05-31T13:00Z |
16.37
|
Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T13:24Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.03
|
----
|
2025-05-31T15:35Z |
13.78
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T10:19Z
|
4.95
|
----
|
2025-05-31T17:02Z |
12.33
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T07:12Z
(-5.58h, +5.58h)
|
1.83
|
----
|
2025-05-31T18:58Z |
10.40
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T11:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
5.63
|
95.0
|
2025-05-31T19:30Z |
9.87
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T10:31Z
(-3.667h, +3.617h)
|
5.15
|
97.0
|
2025-06-01T04:31Z |
0.85
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T09:26Z
|
4.07
|
97.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 7.16667 - 8.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T10:19Z
|
4.95
|
98.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 7.5 - 9.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Hazy CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-30T12:53Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME appears to be continued dimming and field line movement following a wide eruption associated with an M3.4 class flare from AR 4100. These features can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 211. This CME overlaps with earlier CME: 2025-05-30T06:38Z which is associated with the M3.4 flare, where as this event is more associated with the subsequent dimming following the flare. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density, followed by a drop in density. There is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components seen further in the signature (after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating possible start of a flux rope (there are also two more potential flux ropes seen in the 2-day solar wind signature). This CME would likely have been swept by the front of the following, much faster, 2025-05-31T00:15Z CME, the combined front arriving early.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-02T04:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
22.63
|
----
|
2025-05-30T16:58Z |
36.40
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
18.63
|
----
|
2025-05-30T17:30Z |
35.87
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T10:40Z
(-5.34h, +7.06h)
|
29.30
|
66.0
|
2025-05-30T22:52Z |
30.50
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T19:30Z
(-12.1h, +12.1h)
|
14.13
|
90.0
|
2025-05-31T06:00Z |
23.37
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T13:24Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.03
|
----
|
2025-05-31T15:35Z |
13.78
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T23:54Z
|
18.53
|
78.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.25 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T00:00Z
|
18.63
|
78.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME with hazy leading edge first seen in the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-30T06:38Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an M3.4 class flare from AR 4100 (N05E21) as seen in SDO AIA 131. A wide area of dimming is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211, along with field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density, followed by a drop in density. There is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components seen further in the signature (after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating possible start of a flux rope (there are also two more potential flux ropes seen in the 2-day solar wind signature). This CME would likely have been swept by the front of the following, much faster, 2025-05-31T00:15Z CME, the combined front arriving early.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-06-01T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
14.63
|
----
|
2025-05-30T12:47Z |
40.58
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T18:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
12.63
|
60.0
|
2025-05-30T16:50Z |
36.53
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T06:13Z
|
24.85
|
----
|
2025-05-30T17:00Z |
36.37
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
18.63
|
----
|
2025-05-30T17:30Z |
35.87
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-02T11:03Z
(-7.19h, +5.51h)
|
29.68
|
75.0
|
2025-05-30T22:40Z |
30.70
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T13:24Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.03
|
----
|
2025-05-31T15:35Z |
13.78
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T23:26Z
|
18.07
|
67.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.75 - 6.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-06-01T22:00Z
|
16.63
|
67.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-19T00:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large, bright CME first seen in the NW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-19T00:00Z as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a large filament eruption centered at approximately N50E10 with a gradual liftoff beginning at approximately 2025-05-18T19:00Z. This filament can be seen exhibiting some Northwestern deflection in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211, field line opening visible in SDO AIA 171 and post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131 and 193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-05-23T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
75.0
|
2025-05-19T13:03Z |
82.95
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-23T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-05-19T13:14Z |
102.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-23T06:45Z
|
----
|
54.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-23T00:17Z
|
----
|
54.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-23T00:17Z
(-6.16h, +10.43h)
|
----
|
33.0
|
2025-05-19T22:18Z |
73.98
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-12T23:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-05-16T20:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.33
CME Note: Bright loop CME first seen in the North by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-12T23:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is two very large filament eruption, one seen on the Earth facing disk, and the other on the far side. The Earth facing filament has footpoints at approx. N20W50 and N50E60, where as the far sided filament appears to be just beyond the NW limb. These filaments are best seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming and field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. In coronagraphs, the on disk eruption appears to over shadow the far sided eruption, and they appear as one feature. Complex arrival signature characterized by a gradual increase in B total from 7 nT to eventually 22 nT, accompanied by rotation of two or more magnetic field components (with periods of negative Bz) and by a gradual increase of solar wind speeds from just over 400 km/s to initially 550 and eventually to over 700 km/s. Around 2025-05-17T04:10Z there is a short pileup followed by a decrease in ion density and a very fast rotation of magnetic field components.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-05-16T19:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-1.17
|
80.0
|
2025-05-13T11:42Z |
80.47
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-16T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-20.17
|
----
|
2025-05-13T12:38Z |
79.53
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-16T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-0.17
|
85.0
|
2025-05-13T14:44Z |
77.43
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-17T13:22Z
(-10.45h, +13.47h)
|
17.20
|
10.0
|
2025-05-13T23:19Z |
68.85
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-16T19:05Z
|
-1.08
|
58.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-16T19:30Z
|
-0.67
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-06T18:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the northwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and GOES CCOR1. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2025-05-06T19:23Z to 2025-05-07T01:53Z. The source is a large-scale filament eruption occurring near N45W20 best seen in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO AIA 304 which begins to lift off as early as 2025-05-06T14:45Z. The full filament liftoff can be seen leaving the disk starting at 2025-05-06T17:00Z. The CME features include a faster protruding nose ahead of the bulk of the CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-05-09T04:45Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2025-05-07T15:22Z |
37.38
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-10T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-05-07T16:57Z |
57.05
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-09T15:22Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-09T15:22Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-06T16:55:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Relatively fast, narrow eruption seen to the south-southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and farther to the east-southeast or directly southeast in STEREO A COR2; the CME is associated with a filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk near S20W01 seen as a lifting off of dark plasma in GOES SUVI 304 and SDO AIA 304 around 2025-05-06T16:30Z with bright post-eruptive arcades, especially in SDO AIA 193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-05-09T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-05-06T18:43Z |
61.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-09T04:10Z
(-6.09h, +4.26h)
|
----
|
25.0
|
2025-05-07T02:45Z |
49.42
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-09T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2025-05-07T08:14Z |
51.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-09T08:03Z
|
----
|
22.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-09T08:00Z
|
----
|
22.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-05-05T09:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a filament eruption centered around S25E20 with liftoff starting at 2025-05-05T08:03Z in SDO AIA 304. Eruption with dimming and opening field lines is best seen in SDO AIA 193. Post-eruptive arcades are best seen in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO AIA 335. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304 imagery. A faint shock can be seen for a few frames of SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, extending east of the bulk of the CME, but is not measurable.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-05-07T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-05-05T13:27Z |
56.55
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-07T23:00Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2025-05-07T04:15Z |
18.75
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-07T22:30Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-05-07T22:30Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-22T10:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption stretching from N18E70 to N30E50, centered around N25E65. The eruption is seen starting around 2025-04-22T09:12Z in SDO/AIA 304 with moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 171.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-27T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-04-22T17:20Z |
104.67
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-27T02:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-27T02:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-24T06:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Two heavily overlapping flux rope CMEs from the same source seen to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is two instances of significant dimming and opening field lines seen from the same location, AR 4065 (S31E10), starting at 2025-04-22T06:37Z then at 2025-04-22T07:24Z. There appears to be southern deflection in the UV imagery. Post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-22T08:13Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-24T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.83
|
----
|
2025-04-22T16:42Z |
37.47
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-24T20:00Z
|
13.83
|
----
|
2025-04-22T22:30Z |
31.67
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-24T09:18Z
(-17.2h, +17.2h)
|
3.13
|
70.0
|
2025-04-23T06:00Z |
24.17
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-24T14:26Z
|
8.27
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-24T14:00Z
|
7.83
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
CME Note: Faint loop CME seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. This CME overlaps heavily with the large filament eruption CME:2025-04-13T08:00Z. Source is a bit uncertain, but a candidate source is dimming seen near AR 4060 (N09E30) spanning from N00 to N15 and E20 to E30, starting around 2025-04-13T07:00Z in SDO AIA 193. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-15T22:16Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.67
|
----
|
2025-04-14T02:21Z |
38.25
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.40
|
----
|
2025-04-14T12:58Z |
27.63
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T20:38Z
|
4.03
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T20:38Z
|
4.03
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
CME Note: A southeastern halo with a very complex system of several fronts that seem to be moving/expanding in unison. It is difficult to differentiate the bulk vs. shock components of the CME. There seems to be the more dense more southern part to the SW and also a fainter more 'halo' front. The source is a filament erupting starting 2025-04-13T05:00ZZ, stretching from S30E01 to S15W25 as seen in SDO AIA 304 (with more minor dimming reaching S01W30 as seen in SDO AIA 193), and centered ~S18W15. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-16T19:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
26.40
|
30.0
|
2025-04-13T15:25Z |
49.18
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T18:00Z
|
1.40
|
----
|
2025-04-13T16:49Z |
47.78
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T14:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.23
|
----
|
2025-04-13T19:25Z |
45.18
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T13:51Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.75
|
----
|
2025-04-13T22:18Z |
42.30
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T15:12Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.40
|
----
|
2025-04-14T04:51Z |
35.75
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T10:21Z
(-5.88h, +4.33h)
|
17.75
|
90.0
|
2025-04-14T07:35Z |
33.02
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T00:00Z
|
7.40
|
70.0
|
2025-04-14T07:41Z |
32.92
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T21:00Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
4.40
|
----
|
2025-04-14T07:50Z |
32.77
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T22:31Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.92
|
----
|
2025-04-14T09:00Z |
31.60
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T03:41Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
11.08
|
----
|
2025-04-14T09:09Z |
31.45
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T02:43Z
|
10.12
|
----
|
2025-04-14T10:13Z |
30.38
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.40
|
----
|
2025-04-14T12:58Z |
27.63
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T19:18Z
(-7.42h, +7.42h)
|
2.70
|
----
|
2025-04-14T13:20Z |
27.27
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Christian Moestl (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T11:38Z
(-3.53h, +2.53h)
|
19.03
|
100.0
|
2025-04-14T16:22Z |
24.23
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T09:38Z
(-3.08h, +2.26h)
|
17.03
|
100.0
|
2025-04-15T07:59Z |
8.62
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T22:31Z
|
5.92
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T00:33Z
|
7.95
|
78.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.88889
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
CME Note: Faint and wide loop CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as an extremely faint halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a portion of filamentary material seen twisting as it lifts off at S20W30, which is the western-most side of the large filament eruption seen occurring around 2024-04-13T07:00Z. Liftoff of filamentary material is seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2024-04-13T07:10Z and dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2024-04-13T07:46Z, both from S20W30. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-16T06:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.77
|
----
|
2025-04-14T01:29Z |
39.12
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T10:21Z
(-5.88h, +4.33h)
|
17.75
|
90.0
|
2025-04-14T03:07Z |
37.48
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T00:00Z
|
7.40
|
70.0
|
2025-04-14T07:39Z |
32.95
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T21:00Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
4.40
|
----
|
2025-04-14T07:50Z |
32.77
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.40
|
----
|
2025-04-14T12:58Z |
27.63
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T01:44Z
|
9.13
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.25 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T00:00Z
|
7.40
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
CME Note: SE halo (especially in SOHO) CME, with the start obscured by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A but available from the start in SOHO LASCO. The CME is partly obscured in C3 imagery by the pylon. The CME is directed to the SE in COR2A (as seen after the gap). The source of this CME is a filament eruption extending from N10E15 to S30E15, as seen in SDO AIA 304, 193, 171 and GOES SUVI 284, 304. Post-eruptive arcades are also seen in STEREO A EUV imagery after the end of data gap. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-15T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.40
|
----
|
2025-04-13T14:44Z |
49.87
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-17T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
43.40
|
60.0
|
2025-04-13T16:25Z |
48.18
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-17T23:30Z
(-13.26h, +9.64h)
|
54.90
|
----
|
2025-04-13T17:09Z |
47.45
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T13:51Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.75
|
----
|
2025-04-13T22:18Z |
42.30
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.40
|
----
|
2025-04-14T12:58Z |
27.63
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T16:24Z
(-15.17h, +15.17h)
|
23.80
|
----
|
2025-04-14T13:22Z |
27.23
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Christian Moestl (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T13:17Z
|
20.68
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.75 - 6.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T05:42Z
|
13.10
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
CME Note: CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the north of STEREO A COR2. The potential source is activity from the vicinity of ARs 4055 (approx. N06W52) and 4058 (approx. N15W53) characterized by brightening best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-11T23:13Z and opening/moving field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not seen in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-15T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.60
|
----
|
2025-04-12T20:45Z |
67.85
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-16T03:00Z
|
10.40
|
----
|
2025-04-13T03:05Z |
61.52
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T18:30Z
|
1.90
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-15T18:30Z
|
1.90
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-04-03T04:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint loop CME seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, SE in STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption seen starting at 2025-04-03T03:24Z from AR 4045 (S15W05) with Eastern deflection. Brightening and ejecta seen deflected to the east are seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting at 2025-04-03T03:24Z. SDO AIA imagery was in a data gap which lasted from 2025-04-02T15:52Z to 2025-04-03T04:54Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-06T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-04-03T16:18Z |
55.70
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-06T00:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-06T00:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-31T10:16Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This event is visible to the east/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is still developing and only early imagery is available as a result. The source is related to an eruption and X1.1 flare from Active Region 14046 starting around 2025-03-28T15:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A subsequent wide opening of field lines can be observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery at this time as well.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-31T04:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.27
|
----
|
2025-03-29T00:53Z |
57.38
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-30T02:32Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-31.73
|
----
|
2025-03-29T01:40Z |
56.60
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-30T15:00Z
|
-19.27
|
50.0
|
2025-03-29T04:00Z |
54.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-31T03:47Z
(-9.27h, +10.84h)
|
-6.48
|
50.0
|
2025-03-29T14:09Z |
44.12
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-31T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.27
|
----
|
2025-03-30T00:36Z |
33.67
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-30T21:27Z
|
-12.82
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 5.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-31T03:47Z
|
-6.48
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-27T04:23:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-01T17:29Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME to the northeast with a somewhat fuzzy loop-like front that is slightly brighter in the first couple images in STEREO A COR2. The source is not clear but the fit with two coronagraphs suggests AR 4043, indicating that the source could have been a C3.9 flare centered somewhat NW of AR 4043 (N15E40) and peaking at 2025-03-27T03:12Z. There are no significant coronal signatures except for the flare itself seen in SDO AIA 131. This CME with low confidence may have arrived at Earth as a minor interplanetary shock near 2025-04-01T17:29Z as a small but rapid magnetic field enhancement and not much variation in the wind speed.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-04-01T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-11.48
|
----
|
2025-03-27T13:33Z |
123.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-01T06:00Z
|
-11.48
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-04-01T06:00Z
|
-11.48
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-21T16:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-23T23:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint halo CME with a bulk visible mainly to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery (more easily seen in difference imagery). There is no STEREO A COR2 imagery for this event due to a data gap. The source of this CME appears to be a large dimming region centered near N02E07 starting around 2025-03-21T15:49Z with a southeast directionality based on the minor EUV wave visible in SDO/AIA 211 and 193 imagery. There's a large coronal hole situated E/SE of the dimming region and a separate coronal hole due west of the dimming region which may have contributed to the deflection visible on the solar disk in SDO/AIA imagery. This source location appears to be a sympathetic eruption to the M1.2 flare from AR14028 (S17W33) seen to the SW in SDO/AIA 131 imagery. || Arrival: Characterized by an initially slow rise in Btotal from 7.12nT to 9.65nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, a shock up to 12.44nT at 2025-03-24T00:16Z, and further rise to a peak Btotal of 16.8nT at 2025-03-24T01:14Z. Bz was largely neutral with several periods of sustained southward values around -5 to -10 nT, reaching a peak -9.82 nT at 2025-03-24T01:21Z. Solar wind speed rose from around 360 km/s to 390 km/s, briefly dipped down to around 350 km/s, then rose to a peak of around 430 km/s. Density rose from around 6 p/cc to a peak of 35.3 p/cc at 2025-03-24T04:40Z. Temperature data did not respond much to this arrival signature, remaining largely level. This is likely the late arrival of CME 2025-03-21T16:00Z, anticipated to give Earth a glancing blow at 2025-03-23T07:30Z (+- 7 hours).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-23T07:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-16.00
|
----
|
2025-03-21T23:09Z |
48.35
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-22T14:51Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-32.65
|
----
|
2025-03-21T23:29Z |
48.02
|
Max Kp Range: 9.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-23T22:51Z
(-5.29h, +3.89h)
|
-0.65
|
----
|
2025-03-21T23:30Z |
48.00
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-23T00:00Z
|
-23.50
|
----
|
2025-03-22T01:00Z |
46.50
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-23T06:00Z
(-6.0h, +8.0h)
|
-17.50
|
95.0
|
2025-03-22T10:53Z |
36.62
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-22T20:48Z
|
-26.70
|
----
|
2025-03-22T10:55Z |
36.58
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-23T10:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-13.50
|
70.0
|
2025-03-22T13:32Z |
33.97
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-23T07:24Z
|
-16.10
|
85.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.5 - 7.83333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-23T06:45Z
|
-16.75
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-24T01:19Z
(-5.53h, +3.93h)
|
1.82
|
90.0
|
2025-03-23T16:17Z |
7.22
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-19T02:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Bright streamer blowout CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME is visibly wider in STEREO A COR2 imagery than in SOHO imagery. The source of this CME appears to be a complex series of eruptions beginning with an eruption near N05E05 starting around 2025-03-19T00:39Z. This eruption may have triggered additional instability of nearby magnetic field line foot points, which may be associated with the streamer itself. Dimming is clearly seen to the east of the initial eruption location starting around 2025-03-19T06:00Z. It is also around this time that the CME appears to begin to speed up in the SOHO field of view with a more clear/defined front appearing around this time as well.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-22T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-03-19T17:31Z |
70.48
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-22T19:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-03-20T10:10Z |
56.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-22T17:30Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-22T17:30Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-21T01:42Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Arrival Notes: Initial interplanetary shock seen at DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-21T01:42Z (ACE magnetic field data gap from 2025-03-21T04:00Z to 2025-03-21T09:48Z) characterized by rapid magnetic field rise from 3 to 6 nT, rapid increase in solar wind velocity from 380 km/s to 430 km/s, and simultaneous rises in solar wind density and temperature. A second magnetic field jump >10nT is observed at 2025-03-21T10:10Z, from around 9nT to 12nT with Bz initially mostly northward. In other solar wind components, a small but distinct speed jump from 370 km/s to 390 km/s, brief density spike from 15 p/cc to 22.9 p/cc, returning to 10 p/cc, and a minimal spike in temperature are observed with this second Bt spike. || CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-03-17T11:36Z. Also seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C3 but not visible in STEREO A COR2A imagery (where it would be near center disk from the perspective of STEREO A). The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around N12W30 which starts around 2025-03-17T10:36Z and is best seen in SDO AIA 304.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-20T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.70
|
----
|
2025-03-17T20:11Z |
77.52
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-20T09:00Z
(-9.0h, +12.0h)
|
-16.70
|
60.0
|
2025-03-18T06:45Z |
66.95
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-20T15:30Z
|
-10.20
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-20T15:30Z
|
-10.20
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-17T03:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Very slow CME that looks like a slow streamer blowout, with a succession of almost identical faint fronts seen in both coronagraphs. The CME seems to accelerate, as seen in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery. There is no clear source seen on the disk, although there is a super minor dimming in AIA 193 centered around N30E10 starting after 00:30Z and continuing until 05Z, but it is extremely faint.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-20T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-03-17T20:35Z |
57.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-20T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-20T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Partial halo CME with bulk seen to the north-northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery and more towards the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery with faint, very wide shock developing in later frames with invisible leading edge containing lobes to the north and east in both SOHO and STEREO A imagery. The presumed source is an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 4032 (N35E35) seen as a dimming in SDO AIA 193 as early as 2025-03-16T18:04Z, disappearing loop structure in SDO AIA 171, and brightening in SDO AIA 304. There are two eruptions seen in GOES SUVI 304 imagery emanating from the same area, one seen at 18:49Z and another which appears more Earth-directed at 20:49Z. Triangulation using SOHO and STEREO A imagery seems to more strongly support Earth-directedness and deflection westward than the EUV imagery.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-19T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-03-16T23:49Z |
68.18
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-19T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-03-17T00:16Z |
62.73
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-20T03:36Z
(-4.56h, +7.27h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2025-03-17T14:25Z |
61.18
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-19T21:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2025-03-18T06:45Z |
38.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-19T20:54Z
|
----
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-19T20:30Z
|
----
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-13T17:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 composed of a bright narrow bulk and a fainter shock extending to the north and west relative to the bulk. The source is a minor eruption from near Active Region 4020 (N20E13) with northern deflection as seen in SDO AIA 193, 171, 304 as early as 2025-03-13T16:49Z; darkening in SDO AIA 193, brightening in SDO AIA 304 and the appearance of a breaking loop in SDO AIA 171. Attached WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulation by M2M submitted to CME Scoreboard at 2025-03-14T15:26Z was executed in support of SEP models and should not be used for CME trajectory analysis, potentially representing an overestimate of potential impacts relative to observations. Based on the simulation output, there is low confidence the CME may arrive at Earth very weakly around 2025-03-16T07:48Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-16T07:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-03-14T15:26Z |
40.37
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-16T12:09Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-03-15T08:44Z |
27.42
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-16T09:58Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-16T09:58Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-10T13:44Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This narrow on-disk CME is seen as a faint flux rope due south in SOHO LASCO C2 and simultaneously as a faint loop to the southeast in STEREO A COR2, which is currently 30 degrees to the west of SOHO LASCO. The source is a subtle eruption from AR 4012 (S20W00) starting at 2025-03-07T21:35Z, seen as dimming, brightening, and field line opening in SDO AIA 193 and 171, as well as GOES SUVI 284 and 304. || Arrival: The very weak passing influence of CME: 2025-03-07T22:12Z detected by ACE at L1 starting at 2025-03-10T13:44Z characterized by a brief period of compression from 2025-03-10T09:50Z to 13:36Z, followed by an inconsistent rotation in the Bx and By components lasting from 2025-03-10T13:44Z to about 2025-03-10T22:16Z. B-total does not become significantly enhanced during this period of rotation, remaining around 5 nT. The density and temperature both do not exhibit any significant increase or decrease.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-11T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.27
|
----
|
2025-03-08T14:22Z |
47.37
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-10T18:00Z
|
4.27
|
----
|
2025-03-08T15:00Z |
46.73
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-10T19:02Z
(-7.87h, +5.9h)
|
5.30
|
----
|
2025-03-08T16:00Z |
45.73
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-10T02:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-11.73
|
30.0
|
2025-03-09T12:20Z |
25.40
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-10T15:45Z
|
2.02
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-10T18:31Z
|
4.78
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-04T17:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright core mostly on the right side of the CME. The source is a large L-shaped filament eruption stretching from ~S35W10 to ~S15E40 centered around ~S35E20 starting around 2025-03-01T17:00Z. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA, GOES SUVI, and STEREO A EUVI 304. Dimming, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO/AIA 193.
---
Arrival Notes: Characterized by a slow rise in Bt from around 4nT to a peak of 8.9nT at 2025-03-05T22:23Z. Bz largely swings between northward and southward throughout the signature, briefly sustaining southward around -7.5nT from 2025-03-05T19:38Z-2025-03-05T21:58Z. An small sustained increase in wind speed from around 460km/s to 490km/s is observed alongside an initial temperature and density bump. Speed and temperature slowly decrease as the signature plays out and density slowly increases. This is likely the expected glancing blow of CME 2025-03-01T18:24Z, anticipated at L1 at 2025-03-04T16:00Z (+- 7 hours).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-03-04T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.17
|
----
|
2025-03-02T01:24Z |
63.77
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-04T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.83
|
40.0
|
2025-03-02T02:27Z |
62.72
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-04T15:00Z
|
-2.17
|
----
|
2025-03-02T04:38Z |
60.53
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-06T10:48Z
(-6.4h, +10.02h)
|
41.63
|
----
|
2025-03-02T17:47Z |
47.38
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-05T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
24.83
|
30.0
|
2025-03-02T20:33Z |
44.62
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-05T02:00Z
(-4.79h, +7.93h)
|
8.83
|
33.0
|
2025-03-04T04:14Z |
12.93
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-05T05:28Z
|
12.30
|
34.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-03-04T22:30Z
|
5.33
|
33.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-26T06:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME first seen in the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-26T06:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a filament eruption centered at approx. S10W25 exhibiting a strong Westward deflection. This filament is visible in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI 304, along with dimming and post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-28T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-26T14:01Z |
35.98
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-28T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2025-02-26T16:58Z |
35.03
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-28T03:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-28T03:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-26T05:26Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.67
CME Note: CME first seen to the WNW is SOHO LASCO C2. CME is also seen as a partial halo mostly to the NW in STEREO A COR2 but is obscured by the pylon is SOHO LASCO C3. This CME is very difficult to distinguish from the previous CME in white light imagery. The source is most likely associated with an M3.3 flare from AR 14000 (N17W21) that peaked at 2025-02-24T07:02Z. The flare and a region of dimming projected south of the flare are seen across SDO AIA and GOES SUVI wavelengths but are best seen in SDO AIA 193. There also appears to be some western deflection. CME arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 10nT to a maximum of 20nT at 2025-02-26T12:31Z. This CME possibly interacted with a coronal hole high speed stream, impacting the arrival time. The coronal hole high speed onset was seen at L1 at 2025-02-26T12:36Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-26T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.57
|
----
|
2025-02-24T22:29Z |
30.95
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-27T02:30Z
|
21.07
|
----
|
2025-02-25T19:30Z |
9.93
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-26T20:15Z
|
14.82
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-26T20:15Z
|
14.82
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-20T00:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide CME seen primarily to the west in SOHO C2 and C3 imagery associated with a bright C8-class flare and eruption from around AR 13991 (S12W34) as seen in SDO/AIA 304 and SDO/AIA 131 starting around 2025-02-19T23:33Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-23T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-21T14:00Z |
46.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-24T06:10Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
25.0
|
2025-02-21T14:12Z |
63.97
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-23T21:05Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-23T21:05Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-17T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-15T17:52Z |
42.13
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-17T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-15T20:33Z |
39.45
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-17T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-17T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 only, STEREO COR2A beacon data entirely misses this event. Partially overlaps with CME 2025-02-14T22:00Z to the SE. The source for this CME is likely an area of the disk ~N14E33 which brightens and releases some filament material to the NE starting around 2025-02-14T20:58Z, best observed in SDO AIA 171/193/304.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-17T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-15T20:33Z |
39.45
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-17T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-17T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-14T08:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide, faint CME seen primarily to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 which appears to be associated with a C6.6-class flare from Active Region 13994 and subsequent eruption seen best in SDO AIA 094 and SDO AIA 304 with notable deflection to the east. Despite the overall weak eruptive signature, triangulation strongly suggests that the eruption is associated with front-sided activity bounded by longitudes -25 to -45.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-16T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-14T14:31Z |
49.48
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-17T05:06Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-14T15:23Z |
61.72
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-16T18:00Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2025-02-15T01:54Z |
40.10
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-16T21:02Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-16T18:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-13T15:23:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is very faint with a diffuse front. The potential source of this CME is a dimming centered around S07W10 just East of AR13992 as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 starting around 2025-02-13T14:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-16T04:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-14T02:44Z |
49.27
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-16T12:41Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-14T10:18Z |
50.38
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-16T08:20Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-16T08:20Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-08T10:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2. Source is an M2.0 flare and associated eruption from AR 13981 (N07W41). Opening field lines and dimming seen starting at 2025-02-08T09:09Z, best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also seen from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-12T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-02-08T23:06Z |
78.90
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-12T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-12T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-07T06:24Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-02T23:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 02/15:23Z. The source of this CME is an M4.1 flare from Active Region 3981 (N05E25) beginning at 02/23:04Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with field line opening seen exhibiting a Southern deflection seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-06T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-30.40
|
----
|
2025-02-03T01:41Z |
100.72
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-06T19:00Z
|
-11.40
|
----
|
2025-02-03T04:21Z |
98.05
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-06T07:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-23.40
|
----
|
2025-02-03T14:00Z |
88.40
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-06T08:40Z
|
-21.73
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-06T07:00Z
|
-23.40
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-31T14:38:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery, there currently is no SOHO imagery available for this CME. The source is an M6.7 flare from AR13978 (N14E43), based on SDO/AIA 131 imagery, peaking at 2025-01-31T14:06Z. Associated filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2025-01-31T13:51Z. Moving/opening field lines and EUV wave are also visible along the NW limb in GOES SUVI 284 starting around 2025-01-31T14:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-04T13:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-31T19:08Z |
89.87
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-04T13:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-04T13:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.33
CME Note: Faint partial-halo CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, which remains visible into the C3 field of view. Overlaps with CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which is much more well-defined in coronagraph imagery. This CME is not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source of this CME is a distinct set of opening field lines and post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94/171/193 around 2025-01-30T14:25Z located at approx. S15E10, as part of the same filament eruption which sourced CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which was seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-01T15:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-7.32
|
----
|
2025-01-31T02:08Z |
44.28
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-02T03:39Z
|
5.23
|
----
|
2025-01-31T12:08Z |
34.28
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-01T18:57Z
(-6.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.47
|
100.0
|
2025-02-01T01:46Z |
20.65
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-01T15:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-7.05
|
----
|
2025-02-01T14:06Z |
8.32
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-01T19:16Z
|
-3.15
|
100.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.25 - 7.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-01T17:09Z
|
-5.27
|
100.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.5 - 7.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Flux rope CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. CME not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source is a filament eruption seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed. As this arrival signature indicates frontal impact of a CME, this is more likely the effect of the more central faint 2025-01-30T17:48Z CME rather than a glancing blow from the 2025-01-30T16:12Z CME, however both CMEs have the same filament as a source.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-02-02T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.58
|
----
|
2025-01-30T23:06Z |
47.32
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-01T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-2.42
|
40.0
|
2025-01-31T06:29Z |
39.93
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-02T23:24Z
(-18.5h, +18.5h)
|
24.98
|
70.0
|
2025-01-31T07:00Z |
39.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-02T05:25Z
|
7.00
|
----
|
2025-01-31T09:20Z |
37.08
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-02T12:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
13.58
|
60.0
|
2025-02-01T01:30Z |
20.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-01T18:57Z
(-7.0h, +6.0h)
|
-3.47
|
100.0
|
2025-02-01T01:46Z |
20.65
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-01T15:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-7.05
|
----
|
2025-02-01T14:06Z |
8.32
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-02T03:18Z
|
4.88
|
67.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.14286 - 6.28571
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-02-02T00:00Z
|
1.58
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-26T01:25:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-29T20:43Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 (for all frames) and STEREO COR2A (starting at 2025-01-26T02:23Z when a data gap ends). Source is a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, with liftoff starting around 2025-01-26T00:08Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. The curved filament occupied an oval-shaped area on the disk spanning S10-S30 and E38-E65 just prior to eruption. Filamentary material and post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2025-01-25T00:45Z. Post-eruptive arcades become visible in SDO AIA 171/193/131 around 2025-01-26T02:27Z. Possible arrival signature: Weak possible ICME signature characterized by a gradual increase in magnetic field components (B_t: from 5nT to 12nT), as well as an increase in density from 6p/cc to 16p/cc. There is no clear shock feature associated with this signature, as it is likely a minor CME flank impact. A similar, but more direct signature can be observed at Solar Orbiter, which was 20 degrees East of Earth at the time of impact, beginning at approx. 2025-01-29T13:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-30T18:00Z
|
21.28
|
----
|
2025-01-27T10:29Z |
58.23
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-30T18:00Z
|
21.28
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-30T18:00Z
|
21.28
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide, messy CME seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the southeast in STEREO A COR2. Source is a large eruption from the southwest quadrant of the disk, from the large Active Region 13961 which was centered at S10W28 at the time of the eruption. Dimming starting at 2025-01-22T10:43Z extends from S10-S50 and from W10-W40 as seen in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines and ejecta can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304, respectively. It is possible that two small filaments lifted off in this eruption, however, there is filamentary material visible/reformed after the eruption. An M1.3 flare from AR 13961 with peak time 2025-01-22T11:08Z is associated with this event. This CME visually overlaps with the far-sided CME:2025-01-22T08:36Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-25T10:13Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-22T20:24Z |
61.82
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T17:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-22T22:00Z |
67.00
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T07:12Z
(-5.76h, +6.88h)
|
----
|
75.0
|
2025-01-23T00:10Z |
55.03
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T05:51Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-23T00:15Z |
53.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T00:36Z
(-12.5h, +12.5h)
|
----
|
80.0
|
2025-01-23T07:00Z |
41.60
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2025-01-23T12:46Z |
53.23
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T13:01Z
|
----
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.2 - 5.8
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T10:13Z
|
----
|
75.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-26T08:16Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-25T18:52Z |
13.40
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-21T17:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Narrow CME seen due south in SOHO LASCO which appears to be associated with a minor eruption from near Active Region 13967 (S20E25) and broad dimming signature seen best in SDO/GOES 193/195, respectively, following a much larger eruption occurring 2025-01-21T10:20Z. The eruption is characterized by modest southern deflection (out of the ecliptic).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-25T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-22T01:43Z |
82.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-24T18:54Z
(-21.7h, +21.7h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2025-01-22T07:00Z |
59.90
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T03:27Z
|
----
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T03:27Z
|
----
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 4.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME and faint shock to the SE in STEREO COR2A, not yet observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 due to a downlink gap except for a very few late SOHO C3 frames. The source is an M3.3 class flare from AR 3967 peaking at 2025-01-21T10:39Z. Starting around 2025-01-21T09:42Z, a wide area of the disk East and South of AR 13967 brightens up in SDO AIA 304/GOES SUVI 304 with observed filament ejecta fanning out to the SE. Field line movement and extensive dimming, with an EUV wave, over this area also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211. Partially overlaps with far-sided CME: 2025-01-21T09:12Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-24T06:54Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-21T21:55Z |
56.98
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-24T10:01Z
(-6.1h, +7.3h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-22T00:35Z |
57.43
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-25T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-22T01:30Z |
76.50
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-24T16:58Z
|
----
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-24T15:30Z
|
----
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-24T21:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
65.0
|
2025-01-22T02:19Z |
66.68
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-20T20:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Slow, faint CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2 imagery likely associated with a spray-like filament eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3967 (S17E30) seen best in SDO/GOES 304 imagery.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-24T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-20T22:38Z |
92.37
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-24T19:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-24T19:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and to the N/NE in STEREO A COR2 following the front of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T01:36Z. There are two potential sources for this CME. The first source of this CME could be associated with the same M1.7 flare from AR 3964 (N06W34) as the 18/01:36Z CME, however there is a simultaneous small filament eruption from an area to the SE of the main flaring AR location. This filament eruption (~S15W12) is the second potential source and is located above the large Earth-facing coronal hole which may have contributed to significant deflection of the CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-20T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-18T21:34Z |
46.43
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-20T20:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-20T20:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-17T16:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-20T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-17T20:14Z |
63.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-20T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-20T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-07T10:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Super faint CME to the S (SE in STEREO A). The source could be a C2.5 flare and a minor eruption near AR 3951 (S14W06) seen after 09:35Z as dimming/brightening in STEREO A EUVI 195.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-10T16:47Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-07T19:23Z |
69.40
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-10T16:47Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-10T16:47Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-07T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.00
|
----
|
2025-01-04T23:10Z |
52.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-06T21:38Z
(-5.77h, +4.95h)
|
-6.37
|
95.0
|
2025-01-05T03:54Z |
48.10
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-06T17:00Z
|
-11.00
|
----
|
2025-01-05T16:49Z |
35.18
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-06T10:11Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.82
|
----
|
2025-01-05T21:54Z |
30.10
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-06T14:04Z
|
-13.93
|
----
|
2025-01-05T23:08Z |
28.87
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-07T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
0.00
|
40.0
|
2025-01-06T11:47Z |
16.22
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-06T19:58Z
|
-8.03
|
67.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.25 - 6.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-06T19:19Z
|
-8.68
|
67.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.5
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME associated with a long duration C9.3-class flare near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W55) that begins at approximately 2025-01-04T14:30Z, seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It can be seen across all GOES SUVI wavelengths, but is particularly prominent in GOES SUVI 284. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-07T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.00
|
----
|
2025-01-04T23:10Z |
52.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-07T18:14Z
(-4.51h, +4.47h)
|
14.23
|
----
|
2025-01-04T23:14Z |
52.77
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-07T11:37Z
|
7.62
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-07T11:37Z
|
7.62
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-04T13:25:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME first visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-01-04T13:25Z. This CME is only visible for a couple faint frames in SOHO LASCO C3 and is covered by a data gap in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is most likely an X1.8 flare from AR 3947 that peaked at 2025-01-04T12:48Z. The flare and some ejected material can be seen in GOES SUVI 94, 131, 171, 195, 284, and 304 starting around 2025-01-04T12:30Z
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2025-01-04T20:25Z |
89.58
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2025-01-01T02:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-03T23:33Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint CME with a fuzzy front (multiple fronts) to the SW. A possible considered source could be a significant eruption near AR 3939 (S17W15) starting around 2025-01-01T00:30Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. An alternative source is the movement of field lines close to/on the SW limb seen in SUVI 195 after 2025-01-01T01:30Z, possibly from Active Region 3932 (S15W77).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-1.55
|
50.0
|
2025-01-02T11:00Z |
36.55
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
|
-1.55
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
|
-1.55
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Median of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CCMC CME Scoreboard